Premier League best bets: Tottenham vs. Arsenal odds, predictions, picks for 4/28

Tottenham vs Arsenal Odds

Sunday, Apr. 29, 9 a.m. ET, USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Tottenham

Anthony Dabbundo: Both Richarlison and Pedro Porro trained this week for Tottenham, and both are likely to start at striker and right back on Sunday. Spurs will be without key left back Destiny Udogie for the remainder of the season, which will make defending Arsenal star right winger Bukayo Saka a difficult task in this matchup.

Tottenham is one of the few teams in the Premier League that was able to play through Arsenal’s out of possession defensive strength and create multiple big scoring chances. Spurs produced 1.5 xG in the first meeting at Arsenal, and they are one of five PL teams to create at least 1.1 non-penalty expected goals against this historically elite Arsenal defense this year.

The return of Richarlison moves Heung-min Son into his more preferred left winger position. Richarlison hasn’t played a ton of minutes this year (15.8 90s), but the Brazilian has averaged 3.8 shots per 90 and 0.58 NPxG per 90 minutes. Timo Werner and Brennan Johnson have been fine production wise in wide areas around Son when Son has played centrally, but the numbers clearly suggest Tottenham will have its best front four fit for this match Sunday, as Dejan Kulusevski is likely to start in the ride forward position to join Son, Richarlison and James Maddison.

It’s a true matchup of clashing styles as Arsenal look to prioritize match control at all costs, while Ange Postecoglou and Spurs would prefer to play a more end-to-end match. There are questions about how much Spurs will be able to use Ben Davies as an additional attacking outlet as a stand-in for Udogie. He’s not nearly as aggressive in and out of possession and might not invert in the same way that Udogie often did for Spurs.

Spurs have yet again outperformed their underlying xG differential (+16 actual vs. +2.8 expected). That’s become a staple for them in most seasons due to their plus shot-stopping and elite finishing from Son, formerly Harry Kane and now James Maddison.

Arsenal

BJ Cunningham: Arsenal looked amazing Tuesday against Chelsea and there is a reason why.

Thomas Parety was inserted back into the starting XI after missing pretty much the entire season and you already see the massive difference he makes. Not only is he an elite ball stopper, but he allows Arsenal when they are in possession to invert Takehiro Tomiyasu alongside him, which allows Declan Rice to play in the number eight role, as opposed to him playing in the six role and having to be the main cover when defending in transition. Rice is so good that he can play in the number eight role and do it to an elite level, as right off the bat he assisted the first goal to Leandro Trossard.

Another thing Arsenal did, and it was partly game-state dependent, but it allowed Chelsea to have a majority of the ball and controlled the match with its out of possession structure. Chelsea created one huge chance right before the half that should have gone in, but other than that, they created next to nothing while holding for the remainder of the match.

The Gunners also showed against Chelsea who was playing a high line, that they can send balls over the top and make runs successfully off the opponents' back line, which is something they are going to have to be able to do to beat Tottenham.

If we go back to the first North London Derby, Arsenal completely dominated Tottenham’s build up in the first half, as Spurs could not string two or three passes together. For the match, Arsenal forced 11 high turnovers and had a PPDA of 7.0.

Tottenham vs. Arsenal

Tactical Analysis

John Olsen:The last NLD was seven months ago, which means both sides have had a lot of time to develop and change.

Well, Arsenal have actually progressed in that time. Spurs have remained very much the same team they were then. That’s not a bad thing, because Ange Postecoglou a) knew what his best team was pretty quickly and b) coaches behaviors and never deviates from a base set of positional/tactical principles.

Mikel Arteta, on the other hand, has tinkered with his starting lineup quite a bit, and factoring injuries, has never really been able to pick his best XI, partially because he didn’t know what it was for a long time.

Using the 2-2 draw at the start of the year as a reference, Arsenal should get a big boost from the changes I expect Arteta to make to his lineup. Eddie Nketiah, Fábio Vieira and Oleksandr Zinchenko all started at the Emirates, and will likely be replaced by Kai Havertz, Thomas Partey and Takehiro Tomiyasu, respectively. On top of that, one of Leandro Trossard or Gabriel Martinelli should start over Gabriel Jesus on the left.

These alterations will help Arsenal massively with the out-of-possession side of their game, with Partey a much more physical midfield presence than Vieira — and also capable of covering more ground — and Tomiyasu much better-equipped to deal with Kulusevski’s engine and skill in that area of the pitch.

This contest will come down to how the Gunners deal with Spurs’ build-up, which features fullbacks inverting, lateral and vertical arrivals all over the pitch and a general aim to create transitional opportunities after breaking the first two lines of the press. They smothered Tottenham for a lot of the game, but didn’t win the duels needed to win the ball back, and that resulted in opportunities for Spurs on the break.

Lastly, as we saw in the reverse fixture and Tuesday in Arsenal’s demolition of Chelsea, the Gunners aren’t opposed to relinquishing some control of the ball for more territorial dominance and transition potency. While they definitely overdid it in their first encounter with Spurs — sustaining zero pressure and playing vertical whenever possible — on the road against a already weak rest defense now without Destiny Udogie, that might be the path they elect to head down again.

Tottenham vs Arsenal

Prediction

Olsen: Tottenham +0.5 (+110) | Tottenham ML (+350)

This game will be a lot closer than the books think, even if Spurs are missing Udogie and Arsenal has a fully fit squad. As good as Arsenal has been, I don’t see a world where its moneyline should be priced at -135 — an implied 57.5% probability — and Tottenham as low as +350 — 22.2% implied probability — and still falling!

Desperately needing the points for Champions League qualification, at home against its biggest rivals, who are chasing a title, Tottenham is going to lay everything on the line. With two weeks of rest coming into this one, they’ll certainly have the fitness advantage, and they will definitely be able to make Arsenal suffer. I like the value on Spurs moneyline, and also like them against the spread at +110.

Cunningham: Tottenham Under 11.5 Shots (-108 via BetRivers)

Tottenham is in a little bit of a predicament now that Udogie is out because he would have been the one defending Saka in 1 v 1 scenarios. Additionally, Arsenal the last two matches has been pushing Ben White up to overlap with Saka, which has worked really successfully, so that is going to be a problem for Tottenham if Ben Davis is forced to play.

Tottenham has drastically overperformed its underlying metrics, and the three encounters it has had with the top three teams have been interesting. Arsenal dominated them in the previous meeting if it wasn’t for a Jorginho slip, they drew City but got completely outplayed, and they had a two-man advantage against Tottenham for pretty much the entire second half. Knowing that they have only played the best three teams three times, they still only have a +2.6 xGD on the season.

Arsenal is able to control matches both in and out possession because of how good it is on the ball, but also how good it is with its high press and winning second balls, so I really think Tottenham is going to have a really difficult time not only creating chances, but getting shots off.

Arsenal is only allowing 8.3 shots per 90 minutes this season and is going to suffocate Tottenham in its own final third, so I like the value on Tottenham Under 11.5 shots at -108.

Dabbundo: Both Teams to Score in the Second Half (+165)

Spurs manager Ange Postecoglou could opt for pace in wide areas and play on the break more with Son up top and Timo Werner and Brennan Johnson on the wings. However, his most optimal lineup could pose a real threat to a historically elite Arsenal defense with Richarlison’s return at striker to boost the Spurs attack. The Gunners need all three points, as a draw isn’t an option in this title race. Arsenal has made major improvements in transition attacking moments this season and it’s highly likely that Spurs will present chances for Arsenal on the break throughout the match.

Arsenal is the clearly better team and has outperformed Spurs by roughly a goal per match this year. Once you factor in home field advantage, the line should be closer to -115 on the three-way moneyline for Arsenal. If Spurs get to +125 or more to get a result (double chance), I’d bet them Sunday. Otherwise, I’d lean into the match situation and expect a wide open second half in North London after a potentially cagey derby start.